SARS genome maps seen aiding tests, treatments

Friday, May 2, 2003

There are too many huge unknowns with this virus, too many variables; I sincerely doubt that there will be a vaccine that will be effective.

SARS Mortality Rates Based on World Health Organization daily tables (Revised: 5/02am)
Area	Recoveries to date	Deaths to date	Recent** Death Rate	Active Cases still in Danger	Projected Future Deaths	Projected Cumulative Mortality
Hong Kong	832	162	17.6%	604	100	16.4%
Singapore	143	25	19.4%	33	6	15.6%
China	1351	170	38.2%	2117	809	26.9%
Canada	87	20	20.0%	40	8	19.0%
elsewhere [26 countries]	148	14	9.8%	117	11	9.1%
World-wide [all 30 countries]	2563	391		2911	934	22.6%
** ( Deaths in the last 7 days) / ( Deaths + Recoveries in the last 7 days)

Trend - Active Cases Still in Danger
Date	Hong Kong	Singapore	China	Canada	elsewhere 26 countries	World-wide all 30 countries
Apr 19	914	61	307	62		1616
Apr 20	893	64	497	65		1694
Apr 21 (est.)	872	66	686	66		1771
Apr 22	874	60	708	61	80	1783
Apr 23	831	58	968	62	86	2005
Apr 24	812	55	1058	58	76	2059
Apr 25	781	50	1209	51	78	2169
Apr 26	774	51	1346	47	86	2304
Apr 27 (est.)	738	45	1415	47	98	2336
Apr 28	709	39	1484	47	108	2387
Apr 29	663	38	1833	40	108	2682
Apr 30	641	38	1969	41	132	2821
May 1	604	33	2117	40	117	2911
(includes new daily cases... excludes cases resolved by death or recovery)

China had another VERY BAD day...
- They resolved 40 existing cases (but 53% of those by death)
- Then gained almost 5 times as many NEW CASES (+187)
- ...there is no glimmer of improvement yet in China.
The projected Cumulative Mortality for all cases is now at
a record high, thanks to China ... 22.6%!

Here is a COOL " Interactive guide - The spread of Sars"

SARS Rate/Trend chart update ping

WOW! This is getting worse and worse.

I also have a feeling the numbers we get from China are not fully accurate and the mortality rate there may be even higher, than what they are admitting.

This is starting to reach the 30% mortality rate that smallpox has. Also there were those articles about relapses and that even people who were considered and non-relapsed, continued to have the virus ( it was found in their elimination products).

http://www.startribune.com/stories/1556/3859751.html

Officials worry that recovered SARS patients might spread virus
Rob Stein and DeNeen Brown, Washington Post

Published May 2, 2003 SARS02

Some SARS patients who were thought to have recovered might continue to shed the virus, raising the possibility that they may be able to spread the disease, officials said Thursday.

Researchers in Hong Kong said that they had detected evidence of the virus in some people who have not gotten sick and in some who were thought to have recovered and therefore thought no longer be infectious. In addition, officials there confirmed that 12 patients had relapsed.

"Some studies show people do continue to secrete the virus in feces and tears," said Dr. David Heymann of the World Health Organization, who was at a meeting on severe acute respiratory syndrome in Toronto. ". . . There are many more issues to be clarified."

There have been no documented chains of transmission from patients who've been discharged from hospitals.

As the SARS conference was winding down, Canadian health officials announced two new possible cases in Toronto, the first there in 11 days. The cases involved health workers in two hospitals where the disease had spread in the past.

And scientists in Taiwan reported 11 new cases and two additional deaths on Thursday. The scientists added that large numbers of people were being quarantined.

The global death toll rose to 394.

Thank you for the amazing job that you have done to keep track of the stats. It's very useful. Thank again!

I remember about 2 weeks after the outbreak in Hong Kong, microbiologist in the HK University quickly (early April) came up with a testing agent for SARS. When tested positive, the accuracy is quite high: 90%. However, when tested negative, the accuracy is only 50%.

This is a big dilemma for the doctors. Do you send the patient, which maybe innocent, into the SARS ward and eventually get him infected? Or, do you send the probably guilty patient home and risk infecting the community?

I hope the testing agent they have developed today have significantly improved.

Tahnks

Thanks for the ping!